The ticking bomb

William Hague once described it as like a "ticking bomb" which it was his job to make sure did not explode. He was talking about Europe - the issue which destroyed the Thatcher and Major governments and which David Cameron told his party not to "obsess" about.

Tonight - when the Commons debates Europe - the bomb will not explode but the issue is once again obsessing some Tories. The irony is that it is the government which raised the issue again. They promised the electorate and their party a "referendum lock" to ensure that the government could not give away powers to the EU without asking the people for their permission. The problem is, to quote one Tory cabinet minister, "it's alienated Eurosceptics and alarmed Europhiles".

Eurosceptics are concerned that it will be a minister who decides whether a transfer of power to Europe is sufficient to trigger a referendum. Last night the Europe minister, David Lidington, told a meeting of around 50 worried Tory MPs that ministers' "wriggle room" would be heavily constrained - a reassurance he repeated on the Today programme this morning. What's more he said that ministers' judgements will be open to judicial review - in other words a court could be asked to determine whether they had behaved reasonably. That, though, made matters worse for many Eurosceptics.

A growing number of Tory MPs - led by Bill Cash and Bernard Jenkin - object to the increased power of judges and fear that the hard-won sovereignty of Parliament is being eroded - not just by the EU but also by the Human Rights Act and the creation of the Supreme Court. Thus, they regard relying on judges as even worse than banking on ministers and believe that the government's bill will undermine and not reinforce sovereignty.

In truth there is no longer a single coherent group that can be referred to as the Eurosceptics. Almost all Conservative MPs would describe themselves in that way including David Cameron, William Hague and George Osborne. There is a fight going on between veterans like Bill Cash and younger MPs like Douglas Carswell to lead the Eurosceptics. Nevertheless, since the election, a total of 45 Tory MPs have rebelled on one or other vote on Europe. Those MPs have been dismayed by the abandonment of Tory promises to repatriate powers from Europe, by the increase in the EU budget and Britain's role in the EU's bail-out of Ireland.

So, will the government be defeated tonight? That looks very unlikely. Defeat would require a full turnout of all other parties prepared to vote en bloc against the government and a rebellion of 43 Conservatives. However, Labour do not plan to back Bill Cash's amendments and will probably abstain. What's more, I have spoken to a number of Tory MPs who rebelled in the biggest Eurosceptic rebellion so far - in October when 37 Tory MPs voted against the increase in the EU budget - who do not plan to rebel tonight. They believe that today's proposal are not ideal and can be improved but are certainly better than the status quo.

This bill was meant to woo the sceptics. Instead the bomb is ticking a bit louder.

Update 13:40: The government is making a concession on the EU Bill which may reassure several of the Conservative MPs who are considering rebelling this evening. The government is re-writing the bill's explanatory notes to make it clear that parliamentary sovereignty does not depend on common law - in other words on a judge's interpretation not Parliament's will. Ministers see it as a technical point but some potential rebels see it as crucial

Source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/nickrobinson/2011/01/the_ticking_bom.html

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