Sunday, January 2, 2011

Aaron Pena party switch a prelude to 2012 Congressional run?

There's been some mystery around state Rep. Aaron Pena's party switch from Democrat to Republican. Why would he do it? He was just reelected to another two-year term in the Texas House as a Democrat in a heavily Hispanic, heavily Democratic district. Judging from the outrage of party allies and left-leaning political bloggers, Pena will face some stiff opposition in two years. So why switch?Credit: Todd Slater

One idea comes from a close reading of the estimable Charlie Cook's latest projections re congressional redistrictring. We'll know soon how many additional seats Texas is expected to get in the next Census. Texas could get three, maybe four new districts. And Cook suggests that Republicans who will control the process could try to carve up Solomon Ortiz' South Texas district and create two GOP districts. Democrat Ortiz lost last month to Republican newbie Blake Farenthold. Says Cook: "In a way, Republican Blake Farenthold's win in the 27th CD could make Republicans' task a bit easier. They could split the district in half, creating a new Hispanic majority district anchored around the current 27th CD's southern terminus in Brownsville, and merge GOP-leaning Corpus Christi and Anglo areas north into a district designed for an ambitious Gulf Coast-area Republican (it is unclear how badly Republican legislators want to help Farenthold, who is regarded as a fluke winner)." That Brownsville/maybe McAllen district could be drawn in a way that's tailor-made for Pena, an Edinburg lawyer. Fact is, Republicans believe there are enough Republicans in the Valley to do the job, if the lines are drawn just right. And while promising Pena he'll get a new Congressional district drawn for him might be wrong, that's the word among some political insiders at the Texas Capitol.

Source: http://trailblazersblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2010/12/aaron-pena-party-switch-a-prel.html

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