How will Libya end?

The military operation in Libya has scarcely begun. Just days ago the Prime Minister was accused of "loose talk", told he lacked a plan to back up his calls for a no-fly zone and that he could not assemble the necessary alliance.

Yet after the second night of bombing, after the second promise of a ceasefire from the Gaddafi regime, David Cameron is now facing a new question: "how will it end?"

This is how the era of 24/7 news complicates the already delicate process of holding together a broad international alliance which knows what it is against - attacks on civilians - but hasn't agreed what it is in favour of or when and how the military action should stop.

Evidence of the problems that could lie ahead came throughout yesterday.

The Secretary of the Arab League was reported as condemning the overnight loss of civilian lives. Diplomats claim he was quoted without knowledge of what had actually happened - his quote included the words: "the military developments that happened today, I really have no reports as of yet".

The chancellor, then the foreign secretary and then the defence secretary seemed to wriggle when asked on the Sunday TV shows to rule out British boots on the ground. Labour's Ed Miliband will, I'm told, seek an assurance from the prime minister that he is not disowning the promise he delivered on Friday that "no one is talking about invasions or boots on the ground". He is likely, I'm told, to try to reassure by restating the terms of the UN resolution whilst not ruling out that a single British boot - particularly one owned by a member of Special Forces - will ever touch Libyan soil.

Another question likely to be raised in today's Commons debate is the targeting of Colonel Gaddafi himself. In an interview with Five Live's John Pienaar, Liam Fox seemed to suggest that only concern about civilian casualties would stop the Libyan leader being personally targeted. Again, I understand that the prime minister - like the Americans - will try to play down talk of targetting the Colonel emphasising that the resolution allows for the destruction of Gaddafi's military in order to protect civilians.

In truth the resolution's backing for "all necessary measures" and rejection of an occupation of Libya leaves some latitude. It is, though, the need to maintain broad international support which means that, for now, at least, they will be interpreted narrowly. After all, forces from Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Italy, Spain, Denmark and even Belgium are due to join those from the US, UK and France.

What if there is soon a stalemate or, worse, bloody civil war underneath the no-fly zone? No one can say for now. Indeed, the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen, has said "it's very uncertain how this ends".

This crisis has many, many more days to run.

Source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/nickrobinson/2011/03/how_will_libya.html

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